Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles
Ensembles used for probabilistic weather forecasting often exhibit a spread-skill relationship, but they tend to be underdispersive. This paper proposes a principled statistical method for postprocessing ensembles based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which is a standard method for combining predictive distributions from different sources. The BMA predictive probability density function (PDF...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Weather Review
سال: 2005
ISSN: 1520-0493,0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/mwr2906.1